A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
